So, you went to Costco this week and the toilet paper aisle was almost bare. It looks and feels familiar—like those tense months in 2020, right? Only this time, the reason isn’t so clear. Rumors are flying all over town (and across social media) about a wave of panic-buying. But before anyone rushes to blame the supply chain, it’s smart to ask: is there actually a toilet paper shortage at Costco, or are we just repeating old habits?
Let’s break down what’s fueling this latest rush, why the shelves went empty, and what’s really going on with supply and demand.
Why Is Everyone Talking About a Shortage?
The buzz started when Costco shoppers across several states—places like New Jersey, Texas, Arizona, and Colorado—reported their local warehouses out of toilet paper, sometimes within hours of opening. Videos popped up online showing carts stacked high with packs and shelves picked clean.
That looks a lot like a problem with supply, but experts and companies say there’s no actual shortage. The big picture? Reports of a “shortage” are more about how people are behaving, rather than about any true gaps in the system itself.
East and Gulf Coast Port Strike: Setting the Scene
Part of what sent people scrambling was news of an ongoing strike impacting 36 ports stretching from Maine down to Texas. If you read that headline and imagined huge ships loaded with essentials—including toilet paper—stuck offshore, you’re not alone.
These ports handle a lot of important imports—fresh produce, coffee, cars, even holiday trees. But here’s the twist: the vast majority of U.S. toilet paper doesn’t arrive by ship at these harbors.
Where Does America’s Toilet Paper Come From?
Most of the toilet paper you use is produced right here in the U.S. Almost all the big-name brands (including those endless rolls you see at Costco) are American-made.
There are minor imports—mainly from Canada and Mexico—but very little comes via the currently affected ports. So even with picket lines and disruptions at those 36 ports, the actual supply of toilet paper in U.S. stores isn’t taking a real hit.
What the Experts Are Saying
Dr. Subodha Kumar at Temple University’s FOX School of Business has weighed in on the current frenzy. He calls this rush on toilet paper a typical “knee-jerk reaction”—that is, a classic case of shoppers assuming a crisis just because they see a few empty shelves.
Retailers, Dr. Kumar says, already knew about the port dispute and prepared accordingly. Shipping isn’t the problem. “No toilet paper imports rely on these ports,” he stresses. The brands themselves agree.
Kimberly-Clark Corp., which makes Scott and Cottonelle paper products, confirmed the strike is causing zero impact on their operations. Their supplies are steady, and the production lines haven’t slowed.
Social Media Fanning the Flames
If you’ve seen those TikTok or Instagram clips of Costco aisles picked bare, you might feel a sense of déjà vu. It’s the modern way a rumor picks up steam.
A photo or video goes viral, and suddenly, people start texting friends and posting in neighborhood groups: “Costco’s out of TP again—get some while you can!” That’s often all it takes to trigger panic buying, even when supply is unchanged behind the scenes.
Panic Buying in Action—State by State
That’s exactly what’s unfolded recently. Cardboard displays for bath tissue in New Jersey, Arizona, Colorado, and Texas emptied out, sometimes before lunch on a given day.
Is it happening everywhere? Not quite. Most incidents are in major urban costal or Sunbelt areas, those with higher populations and easy access to social media. But even with this surge in demand, it isn’t a national crisis.
What’s Costco Actually Doing About It?
Costco’s own website and app have shown some locations with brands like Charmin or Kirkland out of stock for same-day delivery. Other paper goods like paper towels took similar hits.
CFO Gary Millerchip, talking with reporters, said they’ve definitely noticed a spike in demand for paper goods. But he was clear—no big supply disruptions are expected, and Costco is already working with manufacturers to restock stores as quickly as possible.
Costco tends to be pretty transparent. If there was a larger problem or looming shortage, you can bet they’d say so. Right now, it’s just the speed at which people are buying that’s challenging their normal routine.
Any Signs It’s Like 2020 All Over Again?
It’s easy to remember March 2020, when stores across the U.S. ran out of basics for weeks at a time. Rupesh Parikh, a retail analyst at Oppenheimer & Co., has been watching this current wave.
He says it’s a similar story, but isn’t nearly as extreme or widespread as the early pandemic rush. For one, supply chains are not under the same stress as in 2020, and manufacturers are better prepared this time. The “toilet paper panic” has so far been more localized and shorter-lived.
What Happens If Everyone Keeps Panic Buying?
There is one real risk here: panic buying itself can create temporary shortages, even when supply is steady. If enough people buy more than they actually need, shelves empty out, and that signals trouble to the next round of shoppers.
This creates a so-called “self-fulfilling disruption.” If people keep it up and the strike drags into 2025, even unrelated products—think produce, imported snacks, coffee, or cars—could spike in price. For now, though, the average Costco warehouse is refilling toilet paper displays every morning.
Some researchers at North Carolina State University looked at 2024 strike data. They found only brief gaps in certain brands or sizes in a few cities. No sign of a crisis, no wild price jumps, and plenty of alternatives on most shelves.
Other Factors Driving Up Demand
While the strike is grabbing headlines, it’s not the only thing on people’s minds. Weather can have a big effect on how much toilet paper people suddenly need.
Take Hurricane Helene, for example. When forecasts grow dire, people prepare by stockpiling water, bread, and—yes—toilet paper. That can cause shortages in local stores affected by storms, but it isn’t linked to a broken supply network nationwide.
Local events, regional trends, and simple word-of-mouth mix together in complicated ways. For shoppers in certain cities, even a small hint of scarcity can start a sudden rush.
How Does This Affect the Broader Supply Chain?
So far, for most products, the port strike is only affecting things that usually come by ship—fruits, coffee, foreign cars, and seasonal goods like Christmas trees.
If the labor dispute drags on, stores might have to pay higher prices for those imports. That could eventually push up costs for customers. But for things like toilet paper, where domestic supply dominates, the direct risk is very low.
One analyst put it this way: the biggest danger is “panic buying outpacing actual need,” leaving warehouses briefly empty but no harder for stores to refill on a regular schedule.
Sometimes, even these short-lived runs on basics can prompt retailers and suppliers to rethink how they manage inventory. If you’re curious about how wholesale giants like Costco weather these cycles, you can find more deep dives over at Business Focus Magazine.
What Can Shoppers Actually Do?
If you don’t need more right now, it’s probably best to just buy as usual. The experts and the people making the stuff both say things are steady.
For those who prefer Costco’s Kirkland house brand, the good news is that it’s available online again in many areas. So if you’re patient, there’s little reason to rush from store to store or call friends in other towns.
The Bottom Line: No Need to Panic
Right now, there’s no genuine shortage of toilet paper coming from manufacturing plants to big box stores. The empty shelves at Costco and a handful of other retailers are the direct result of consumers buying up more than they need—usually after seeing or hearing stories online.
With most toilet paper made domestically, shipped by truck and rail, and unaffected by the East and Gulf Coast port strikes, supplies aren’t at risk. Hurricanes and local events might cause a brief rush in some places, but the big picture is pretty steady.
So, the next time you walk into Costco and see an empty shelf, it’s almost certainly a blip—one that can quickly be fixed, not the start of a real shortage. Shop with your actual needs in mind, trust the supply chain for now, and leave a pack or two for your neighbors when you can.
That way, restocking gets easier for everyone, and one less rumor gets the best of us.
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